Nature Influencing History

You might be wondering why I use data from ancient times written by people with limited knowledge, why don’t I use only 21^st century methods. First of all they weren’t stupid back then. It is a great mistake for example to think that everyone during the middle ages thought that the earth was flat. The historian James Hannam wrote a book about it and states in it the following:

‘’The myth that people in the Middle Ages thought the earth is flat appears to date from the 17th century as part of the campaign by Protestants against Catholic teaching. But it gained currency in the 19th century, thanks to inaccurate histories such as John William Draper's History of the Conflict Between Religion and Science (1874) and Andrew Dickson White's History of the Warfare of Science with Theology in Christendom (1896). Atheists and agnostics championed the conflict thesis for their own purposes, but historical research gradually demonstrated that Draper and White had propagated more fantasy than fact in their efforts to prove that science and religion are locked in eternal conflict’’

The book is called: God's Philosophers: How the Medieval World Laid the Foundations of Modern Science (London, 2009) The book creates an image of the ‘’dark ages’’ that strongly opposes the image of most people about the middle ages. 

During the middle ages the knowledge of the Greeks and Romans was certainly not forgotten, it was only further expanded. The Middle East, the Far East and South America were far beyond the earth is flat stage. In these parts of the world there was much knowledge about astronomy, biology, chemistry and many others things. But also in Europe it was certainty not a dark age. There were many scholars who did excellent research and don´t forget that famous universities such as Oxford or Cambridge were founded in the middle ages. But not only in England but also in Italy, Germany and Spain are many universities founded in the middle ages. 

But much more import than making scientific progress is the fact that history can give us good arguments in the debate: who has an influence on who. Do people cause changes in nature or does nature have influence on nature. What made the Vikings leave Scandinavia to raid Western Europe.  How did the vast Maya  civilization  disappear, what happened with the inhabitants of Easter Island. Why died half of the population of Europe during the Black Death between 1348 and 1350. What triggered all the tribes during the Migration Period between 400 and 800 to leave their birth grounds and invade the Roman Empire. Was it the weather?, climate change or others factors. We don’t know it yet for sure. But in all these events weather and climate role play an significant role, and in some cases even a very big role. When we solve these historical questions they will not only give answers in historical terms but they will also reveal much about the weather and the climate of those days. Climate and weather have a great impact on human history and perhaps extreme weather functioned as the straw that broke the camel's back. After the biggest drought in many years the Vikings could have decided to raid England  for gold and other treasures to keep their families alive in Scandinavia for example. 

Anthropology professor Thomas McGovern of Hunter College, City University of New York did research on the question why the Vikings vanished from Greenland. And his answer is Climate change. Watch the video full his full answer

Were I Get My Information

When you want to investigate whether extreme weather is more common these days or whether extreme weather is more extreme than it has been in the past you will  need to compare the past with present.

I will be using a number of articles  from journals such as Nature or Science. The focus of the articles I choose is about understanding (extreme) weather in the past and how much difference (or not) there is between the past and present. 

There will be attention for tree- ring dating. Every tree- ring  gives much information about things such as temperature, rainfall or droughts. When a tree suffers during a very dry summer you will be able to see it in the tree-rings. At the University of Arizona there is a research centre for tree- ring dating. http://ltrr.arizona.edu/

 

Other sources are the national meteorological institutions. Many of these institutions have been collecting data about climate and weather since the 1800’s. Most of the institutions have their own research centres and publish their findings. There are also specialised research institutions, an example is the National Drought Mitigation Centre at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln http://drought.unl.edu/ this institute makes the US Drought Monitor. Another specialised institute is the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. http://environment.yale.edu/climate/  They have made an interesting study about how many Americans believe that climate change is connected with extreme weather. The study is called: Extreme weather, climate & preparedness in the American mind

A completely different source of information are manuscripts and records of weather in the past. Romans, Greeks or medieval monks did not have all the resources and knowledge that we have today but with the tools they had they were able to make good impressions of the actual weather in their time. When a  monk in 1540 writes about the Rhine in Cologne almost being dry you can be sure that the weather was quite extreme. 

Many books about weather in the past have been written by the Dutch historical geographer Jan Buis. He writes about the weather during the last 1,000 year in the Netherlands. For his books he uses manuscripts of that time, which gives it many interesting insides and details of the period. The title is ‘’DUIZEND JAAR WEER, WIND EN WATER IN DE LAGE LANDEN’’ which means: One  thousand years of weather, wind and water in the Low Countries. http://duizendjaarweer.nl/duizend-jaar-weer/  At this moment it’s already six volumes but that number will grow to ten. Every year is described in great detail.

Another  very interesting book is ‘’ An Environmental History of the Middle Ages. This book is brand new and written by John Aberth. He also writes about weather in the middle ages but he also pays attention for what people in the middle ages thought about weather and climate. And it turns out that the modern day humans are not the first ones who were concerned with climate change or extreme weather.  During the middle ages people were already concerned about the human impact on the environment. 

The last interesting article about old manuscripts is written by scientists from universities in Portugal and Spain. These scientists have analysts old manuscripts from the 7^th  till early 11^th century which are written by Arabic meteorologists. They were actual scientists and that gives an unique inside into the weather of early medieval times. But even more surprising is what these early scientists wrote. They were writing about heavy snowfall and extreme cold in Bagdad. Not exactly the type of weather you would expect there.

Introduction

Dear Readers of This Blog, 

My name is Derk  and I am  an exchange student at the University College London.  Before I came to UCL I studied geography at the University of Amsterdam. At UCL I’m taking a number of modules, one of these modules is Global Environmental Change. Part of the assessment for this module is the making of a blog about a subject that is relevant for this module. 

The module Global Environmental Change is about the assumed impact that humanity has on all the aspect of the environment.  This  impact is ranging from rising sea levels and extreme droughts in the Midwest  to the arrival of vineyards in Northern Europe. At this moment almost everyone  is familiar with  terms such as Anthropological  Climate Change or CO2. Al Gore introduced the terms to the whole world in his Oscar winning documentary. Many agree with him to a certain level but others call him a liar who wants to restrict  economic growth  and tries to steal their freedom.  On my blog I will write about extreme weather  and more specific about the question whether human activities have any influence on it, that’s also why I chose for the title: ‘’ How extreme is normal”. 

 But always remember that weather is not the same as climate. The weather can change in minutes, changing a climate takes many years. Climate is a period of at least 40 years. But it’s also true that every type of climate has his own types of weather. The differences in  weather between a  land or a sea climate are enormous.  Another thing is that  the notion of extreme is subjective. For someone who lives in the Sahara desert one small shower is extreme. But in London it isn’t.  Tornadoes are very scary things for me and when  a tornado hits London it will be an extreme event but in Oklahoma it’s quite common. And  when a tornado hits London it doesn’t prove that humans have influence on extreme weather. You need more prove than one tornado. Climate and weather  are intertwined but still distinctive phenomena  and that’s not making it much easier.

In the next post I will explain how I want to find out whether humans are making the weather more extreme.