Russian Heat Wave Version 1

This post is about the Russian heat wave in 2010. There has been a lot of research on this particular heat wave. But the studies contradict each other. The first study I’m using for this blog said the first  that climate change did not have a significant influence, the second said that there was a influence from climate change and the third study said that climate change was likely to have been an influence but they it not sound very sure. In this post I will talk about the study that said that there was no link between the heat wave and climate change. This study was done by Randall Dole, Martin Hoerling, Judith Perlwitz, Jon Eischeid, Philip Pegion, Tao Zhang, Xiao‐Wei Quan Taiyi Xu, and Donald Murray. The study is called: Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? And was published in the Geophysical Research Letters in 2011. 

In the summer of 2010 the Western part of Russia suffered under a large heat wave that caused some of the highest temperatures ever recorded in Russia. It was the warmest July since 1880 and it  caused wildfires and large scale droughts. Of course people started to ask the question: Does climate change have any effect on this heat wave. To answer this question the researchers used a wide range of different climate models and observation data.

As you can see in graph above was the average temperature during the heat wave much higher than normal, more than 10 degrees Celsius more than what you can expect on basis of the average temperature. 

But after running the models and examining all observational data they had to conclude that climate change did not have an influence on the heat wave in Russia. Their observational data does not show any warming trend in the last 130 years. There was no significant warming trend and the number of extreme weather events in West Russia does not show any increase, there was even more extreme weather before 1945 than there is now. 

The graph shows clearly that there is no increase in the number of extreme weather events. Also was there no significant difference between the July temperatures in 1945-2009 and 1899-1944. When climate change had an impact there would have been a difference in temperatures. This is a big difference with Europe or North America were the temperatures have been rising in the period between 1945 and 2009 and the number of extreme weather events has been  rising.  

In this graph you can clearly see that there is no warming is West Russia, but warming does happen to the west and north and south of West Russia. The climate models that were used to simulate extreme heat waves under the climate conditions between 1880 and 2009 were only able to simulate two extreme weather events of the same magnitude as the 2010 heat wave. Non normalized models were also used to create extreme heat waves . But a large number of the extreme heat waves that the models were able to simulate happened before 1945 and that contradicts the climate change theories. This is all in stark contrast with many other places on the planet were extreme weather and global warming are clearly having an impact. 

Climate change did not cause the heat wave, according to the researchers omega blocking was the cause of the 2010 heat wave. This is an event in the upper‐level atmospheric flow that makes the high pressure area unable to move further, it is trapped between two low pressure areas. This causes the weather to stay the same, up to several weeks.  Omega blocking is only one of a number of different forms of Atmospheric blocking . But Omega blocking causes both heat waves and flooding. According to the researchers was the 2010 Russian heat wave was characterized by a ‘’classic omega blocking pattern’’. As prove they show maps with the blocking pattern visible above Russia when simulating with the climate models. 

This graph is made with using the ten warmest summers in West Russia since 1880. There is a clear blocking pattern visible.  

If you want no more about omega blocking you can go to This website for a simple explanation or you can read a scientific paper about written by (Dole and Gordon 1983) Here

Many of the Russian heat waves can be explained  by atmospheric blocking according to the researchers. The researchers also eliminated the possibility that boundary conditions forced the Russian heat wave to occur with using different sets of climate models. The researchers conclude that climate change did not have an influence  on the Russian heat wave and that the heat wave was primarily caused by natural processes. 

This paper concludes that there is no link between climate change and the Russian heat wave and that in itself is good possible.  In every type of climate, changed or not are extreme weather events happening and that is nothing new. But what surprised me is the fact that all around West Russia climate change is warming up the earth but West Russia remains almost completely unaffected as is clearly visible on the surface trend map 1880-2009, but why.  West Russia can’t always  be under influence of blocking, West Russia would be a desert by now and Moscow a ghost town. What natural proces keeps the warming out of West Russia during the rest of the year?.

Dole,R and Gordon, N (1983) Persistent Anomalies of the Extratropical Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Circulation: Geographical Distribution and Regional Persistence Characteristics. Monthly Weather Review,  Volume 111 page 1567–1586 Here

Dole et al (2011) Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave.  Geophysical Research Letters VOL. 38 Here

Explanations about different the forms of blocking http://www.theweatherprediction.com/blocking/ accessed on 5-12-2012